Thursday, August 16, 2012

Israel moves closer to air strike against Iran

After the first general gave his assessment of the Syrian situation the second general delivers his prepared remarks. The first general belonged to the top brass from Sandhurst. A very well respected individual who has always been on our side and swore his loyalty to the monarch. The second general joined us from the ranks of the Israeli military which may be the world's overall most alert and best trained combat formation.

He opens his statement with a remark that shocked several of the members gathered at this conference. He issued a statement that Israel considers an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities before the U.S. elections and without notifying officials. Israel did so in 1981 when they launched an attack on Iraq's Osirak reactor. Israel carried out the attack without notifying the Reagen administration as they expected heavy opposition since the U.S. was leaning towards Iraq which was at war with Iran. Reagen delayed shipments of fighter jets to Israel after the attack.

Israel asked the U.S. to bomb a reactor in Syria under the first Bush administration, which the U.S. refused as they believed Syria is very far from being able to develop a nuclear warhead. Israel bombed a reactor under construction in 2007 and demonstrated that Israel is willing to act on its plans alone if necessary in order to protect the Israel. Iraq was never able to develop a nuclear program after the airstrike. Israel is militarily the strongest force in the Middle East and does not seek a green light from any country for its military operations.

Israel knows that a strike against all Iranian nuclear facilities may only delay Iran's nuclear program by several years, but in the Middle East a few years go a long way. As the Arab Spring showed, the situation in the Middle East can change drastically in a matter of months. Iran is a vital threat to the existence of Israel and will become a major global security risk once they have developed their first nuclear warhead. Iran continues to claim its reactor is for medical purposes.

The Israeli leadership has pressed the issue and said that the window for diplomacy is almost closed and started a SMS service to alert all citizens to missile attacks, increased distribution of gas masks and appointed a new Home Front Defense Minister. Israel has also held maneuvers in the Mediterranean Sea to prepare for an airstrike on Iran.

Israel may have to deal with the threat out of a destabilized Syria, home to the Middle East's largest chemical and biological warfare program. Israel would like to see the ouster of President Assad which would deal another blow to Iran. Assad has supplied Hamas as well as Hezbollah with thousands of rockets used to launch attacks against Israel. The threat of an Assad ouster would lay within the chemical as well as biological arsenal which may be either released in a Hail Mary attempt to stop his ouster or he may deliver them to the above mentioned terrorist organizations.

In the meantime, Iran speeds up his uranium enrichment program and moves key military as well as research facilities deep under ground and out of reach of airstrikes which makes a ground offensive not unlikely. An Iranian plot to kill the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S. together with other diplomats has been foiled, but shows the seriousness and sensitivity of the situation. According to Mossad, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni does not consider military intervention as likely and orders his country to continue with their nuclear program at an accelerated pace.


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