Let’s cut the crap and jump right into The Last Bear’s 2013
market outlook where we will give our predictions for the S&P 500, FTSE 100
and also give our three favorite currency pairs a look.
S&P 500 2013 Market Outlook
The S&P 500 started 2013 at 1,426.19 and endured a
strong rally during the first two months of the year. We believe the rally will
fizzle out with the looming sequester which will kick in on March 1st
and therefore call for a 25% correction during 2013.
We believe the S&P 500 will close 2013 at 1,069.64.
Allow an error of margin of 3% which will get us to a closing range between
1,037.55 and 1,101.73.
FTSE 100
The FTSE 100, our top pick for 2013, started the year at
5,897.80. Given weak economic performance at the start of 2013 and the Eurozone
crisis we believe the FTSE 100 is due for a 15% correction during the year.
We believe the FTSE 100 will close 2013 at 5,013.13. Allow a
margin of error of 3% and we have a closing range between 4,862.74 and
5,163.52.
EURUSD
The EURUSD opened 2013 at 1.3271. This one is quite tricky
as both the Euro as well as the U.S. Dollar face severe problems. The Euro
issues are more structural while the USD is simply not worth the paper it is
printed on. Given the Eurozone debt contagion the Euro will not be able to
rally as much as it should against the USD.
We believe this currency pair will close 2013 around 1.3600
for a gain of 2.48% on the year. Nothing to get too excited over, but expect
nice volatility which will allow for plenty of short-term trades and the
profits will add up.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD opened 2013 at 1.63101 and formed a triple top.
During the first two months the GBP has been pounded like there is no tomorrow
and dropped almost 8%. We believe the GBP will emerge as one of the best
currencies for 2013, if you have opened your longs around the 1.5200 level. The
Sterling had to deal with weak economic reports, a loss of the UK’s AAA credit
rating and a dovish Bank of England.
We believe this pair will bounce back from lows around the
1.5000 level; this currency pair may reach the 1.4750 mark should another event
rattle the monarchy, and close 2013 around 1.6000 which would give traders a
gain of 5.26%. We expect the next few months to be very volatile so: Traders be
aware and profit with The Last Bear.
USDJPY
The USDJPY opened 2013 at 87.192 and has soared ever higher
after the Bank of Japan announced that it will do all it can to devalue the
Japanese Yen. The Deputy Economy Minister threw the 100 level out there. While
the Yen has been collapsing and most believe it will close the year around the
95 mark we believe it is due for a strong rally primarily due to USD weakness
and the potential of QE4.
We believe this pair will move the other way especially
after price action February 25th which shook lose the bulls as the
bears took ‘em to the slaughterhouse. Our 2013 prediction for this pair is a
close around the 80.000 level which is a move of 8.25% from the opening level
and over 15.79% if you got this at the top of its range; screw the 100 level.
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