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Thursday, March 28, 2013

Slovenia next after Cyprus

Our CMO as well as my Chief of Security and I are headed out for a lunch meeting as Cypriot banks reopen for business after being shut since March 16th. They Cypriot equity market remains closed until next Tuesday. It is the last trading day of the first-quarter of 2013 and there has been no bank run as we saw with Northern Rock. Private depositors are allowed to withdraw €300 per day, while businesses have a set daily limit of €5,000.

The capital controls give the Eurozone a taste of what day-to-day business is like in third-world countries except for the U.S. The Finance Ministry stated that the controls will remain in place for seven days, but we expect the decision to be made on a week-by-week basis. Politicians claim the limits will be lifted as soon as practical, while there is believe it will not take place until more stability will become evident in Cyprus.

Foreign investors have ordered managers to pull out of Cyprus, and we have done the same with our funds as we plan to abandon the country, at least for now. They Cyprus Central Bank said it would evaluate requests above €200,000 on a case by case base and we will have to be a bit patient as a substantial amount of the €68 Billion in deposits will head for the exits. There have been reports that some of the cash has been moved while banks were closed and the Cypriot government plans to launch an investigation into those cases.

Germany (Germany, Enemy Number One) wanted to punish Russian oligarchs and were idiotic enough to think they have succeeded. In reality they have given them the heart of Cyprus for free as the money the Germans will steal from Russia and other foreign depositors will be replaced by shares in those banks. Germany has started World War I and lost, they have started World War II and they have lost and now they have started another attempt to create a German Europe and will horribly fail as they have done throughout history.

We arrive at Pulcinella and order our food. I really love this restaurant and enjoy the ambient. We have put the Cyprus situation on the back burner for now as we have to focus on our new, but well-established enemy. Germany has already identified its next target, its next country to invade; Slovenia.

Slovenia has been on the radar, off the radar and did drown in the news flow as Spain and even Italy emerged as the next target for the German occupation. The reason for this was due to the believe that Slovenia could manage to come up with the €4 Billion they require, but since the massacre in Cyprus Slovenia has emerged as the next target as the Alpine nation struggles with its finances.

Newly elected Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek tried to calm fears in her first public speech and vowed to reinstate confidence in Slovenia as she called comparisons to Cyprus unjust. Germany has already invaded and occupied Greece, Portugal and Cyprus while Spain has managed to limit the impact and Ireland has fought back. Slovenia will be the sixth target of German tyranny.

The €4 Billion Slovenia needs are comprised of €3 Billion in borrowing needs the country requires in order to manage this fiscal year plus the €1 Billion in fresh capital required by Slovenian banks. The costs of the bailout are not yet clear and Germany has already started to deploy the financial artillery set on Ljubljana. Slovenia was plagued by two recessions in four years and its state finances are in a terrible mess. Slovenian banks saw bad loans surge as the countries construction industry has collapsed.

Borrowing costs for Slovenia has surged by over 100 basis points and the Finance Ministry said that Slovenia plans to tap the bond market which may prove more optimistic as well difficult as politicians want to acknowledge. Slovenia has not accessed the bond market since October when it sold $2.25 Billion in bonds. It is clear that Slovenia does not possess the luxury of time and Germany has already started to execute their marching orders.

The creation of the $100 Billion currency fund by BRICS (BRICSCollaboration and Currency Markets) is one tool against German oppressors, but we need to deploy our weapons and shield Slovenia from the German invaders while we need to create a combat plan in order to force Berlin to its knees long-term.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Germany, Enemy Number One

My team and I are assembled at a round-table in MTAC and were equally shocked as well as temporarily confused over what just happened. They struck a deal on the Cyprus bailout and will dissemble its second biggest bank, Laiki, which will be turned into a bad bank with all uninsured deposits above €100,000 and toxic assets. Deposits below €100,000 will be transferred to the biggest bank, Bank of Cyprus.

They also agreed that deposits up to €100,000 will be safe and not touched, while deposits above €100,000 will be used and abused in order to come up with the €5.8 Billion required to receive the €10 Billion bailout. The Chairman of the Board at Cyprus Bank tendered his resignation. Banks remain closed today in order to avoid a bank run and investors with deposits above €100,000 in Laiki will face losses of 40%. Those losses will be converted in share of the bank as accounts remain frozen until more details will be announced. The government will steal especially from foreign depositors and force them to remain invested in Cyprus.

This deal was pushed through by Germany, the enemy of capitalism. Sure, there was a meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers in Finland which served as a political front for Germany to tell the Eurozone what they want and what will happen. Germany is once again the most hated country in the Western World and is standing without any true allies.

Germany, yes Germany, broke a global taboo and won this battle, but the war has just begun. The most disturbing news is that Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting of the 17 Eurozone Finance Ministers, stated that the Cyprus approach will be a model for future bailouts which was a suggestion that Spanish as well as Italian depositors should watch out. Germany later indirectly forced him to retract his statement and issue one more in line with the Neo-Nazi regime in Berlin.

After World War II Germany tried hard to shake the Nazi image left behind by Adolf Hitler and his regime. Since the implementation of the Euro and the creation of the Eurozone Germany started to show its true colors all over again. Angered over retributions, anger comparable to the anger Germans felt after World War I, and with enough time to seek revenge on the Western World the true black, red and gold simmered through.

Angela Merkel and her regime have made it their mission to pick off where Hitler failed. They know the German military is weak and undisciplined which makes military action unrealistic since the pride of the German Armed Forces could not even combat a group of unarmed Afghan goat farmers. The same applies to the German police.

Angela Merkel and her Neo-Nazis decided to use the only weapon they have which is financial. Germany amassed the strongest economy in Europe and unfortunately for everyone else they manage a monthly budget surplus. They use this surplus as a financial weapon and invade countries through financial warfare on the economic front in order to destabilize their economies and force them to surrender to German conditions.

Forget the European Union; Germany tries to create a German Union which Berlin can control. Germany has already invaded Greece, Portugal and now Cyprus. Spain is next on their new Blitzkrieg strategy. Germany tries to cripple the Eurozone periphery first and then hopes to move into bigger economies. The one aspect Germany requires is that members remain in the Eurozone in order for Germany to attack them and force them to their knees.

Germans today are no better than the Nazis 60, 70 years ago. Germany became the number one enemy and they need to be stopped, invaded and controlled in the same fashion they did after they capitulated. The U.S. is unable to participate due to their financial burden, but BRICS can pick up the pieces while London holds the course in Europe for now.

We need to assist her Majesty in her efforts against the Neo-Nazis and gather support for Operation Freedom in order to not only address the current issues of the Eurozone and EU, but in order to show the Germans where they belong and cripple their abilities to wager war on continental Europe. The good news is that the German war machine allowed domestic issues to be neglected and cause more and more social unrest which needs to be exploited to crush Germany from within.

At least now we have a clear defined enemy and it is time to gather allies and launch attacks from multiple fronts in order to extinguish the Neo-Nazi regime in Berlin once and for all. London and Moscow need to put their differences aside and work closely together again in order to create a dual front in Europe against Germany. We call for new pledges to allegiance among monarchs as my team and I stand alert and ready for deployment at her Majesty’s wish in order to reignite the strength of the Commonwealth and fights against the oppressors of capitalism.

Germany invites the collapse of the Eurozone and is the sole cause of hardship on hundreds of millions of Europeans. It is time to crush the regime in Berlin once and for all and ensure it will never rise again. Germany has proved on two occasions that it is not capable to accept the rules of a free society and this is their third attempt to control Europe. Our pledge stays firm and our four FWU’s stand ready to lead the strike against Germany, for Queen and country!

Sunday, March 24, 2013

InstaForex Review

InstaForexToday we will take a much closer look at another good broker, InstaForex. Last Sunday we covered The Last Bear’s top pick for new traders and dissected PaxForex and why we think it is a great, new and growing player in the retail forex broker space. PaxForex received our number spot due to their constant innovation as they try to close in on the competition and carve out an edge of their own.

Let's take a look at why InstaForex is our top choice for mature forex brokers:

  1. InstaForex is a well-established forex broker and may be the biggest in the retail world. According to their own information they now have in excess of 500,000 client accounts and offer a range of services which makes InstaForex our best pick for a mature retail forex broker. Let’s get right to it and give you a better understanding of why we like this broker.
  2. InstaForex is a very secure and highly liquid broker. They have been in the forex industry for quite some time and have stood the test of time. Their liquidity is exceptional and clients can rest assured that this broker will never face a liquidity shortfall. They sponsor sports teams and individual athletes, have branded airplanes and hot balloons and are very involved as a corporate brand.
  3. InstaForex offers segregated accounts. This feature is available for trading accounts above $100,000 and gives high net worth clients and additional layer of security.
  4. InstaForex offers plenty of currency pairs as well as CFD’s to clients. Their list is quite extensive, and they have also introduced forex option trading to their arsenal. Their range of assets is basically unmatched and puts them far ahead of their competitors.
  5. Leverage of up to 1:1,000. InstaForex is one of a few forex brokers which allow traders to leverage their account up to 1,000 times their capital. Trader’s need to keep in mind that leverage may enhance trading profits if used correctly and devastate forex portfolios if used careless.InstaForex offers the right leverage for every forex strategy.
  6. InstaForex offers decent bonuses to traders who wish to take advantage of them. Each deposit can be upped by 40% in order to increase trading potential. Please read the terms and conditions carefully before you accept forex bonuses from brokers in order to be aware what requirements you need to fulfill and in order to avoid confusion.
  7. InstaForex offers a great range of forex contests and has an annual price pool in excess of $500,000 in real cash which is given away to winners straight into their forex trading accounts. InstaForex hosts weekly, bi-monthly as well as monthly contests, runs an annual contest where a luxury car is given away, hosts the Miss Asia Beauty Pageant and also hosts a bonus raffle for deposits above $1,000.
  8. InstaForex also offers the MetaTrader 5 forex trading platform which is the next generation trading platform.
  9. They also offer PAMM accounts as well as a forex copy system for social currency trading. On top of that they offer a forex debit card and have an InstaForex club which offers additional benefits to forex traders. In case that was not enough InstaForex streams their own TV channel where they cover forex news. It does not get better than that.
  10. InstaForex gives traders re-quotes on very rare occasions which is another added benefit for this brokerage. It is also worth noting that InstaForex does not manipulate its quotes and there are no re-quotes during normal market moves.
  11. Slippage is another issue forex trader’s do not have to worry about when it comes to InstaForex. Most of the trades will be executed with no slippage at all.
  12. Spreads with InstaForex are very competitive and across all major forex pairs and a welcome destination for every forex strategy including scalpers.
  13. Customer service at InstaForex is very responsive and their team is online 24/5. Most requests and issues are taken care of immediately, but sometimes their support staff copy pastes responses from their FAQ section and it takes a rephrasing of the question to get a better response. In general they are rather good at handling support issues.
Given all the above positives you may think InstaForex is the perfect forex broker and while they try very hard nobody is perfect and here are a few facts we do not like about InstaForex:
  • InstaForex is not an ECN broker. That would not be that terrible, but when you ask them they claim they are a true ECN broker which The Last Bear does not appreciate. Do not lie to clients, especially if they no better. This is the biggest set-back for InstaForex.
  • Trading Recommendations are average at best. Most traders do not care and have their own forex strategy. This broker employs a range of analysts and they do write their forex analysis and recommendations, but they are not beneficial to traders. In essence they tell you if this happens then expect this and if that happens expect that. Well, thanks for nothing as we are aware that price will either move higher or lower than where it is currently. Two claws down!
Conclusion

InstaForex is a top tier mature broker with very deep liquidity and offers an unmatched range of services to forex traders across most categories. The most active and professional traders are not offered a competitive advantage through ECN accounts, but for over 95% of traders InstaForex can offer them what they are looking for.

Given their size, customer service interaction may seem a bit cold and they do not have the hands on approach a full service brokerage would offer. InstaForex tries to strike a balance between services offered and costs incurred by traders and manages rather well if taken in as a whole package. InstaForex is our top choice when it comes to mature forex brokers. The Last Bear has roared!

InstaForex

Friday, March 22, 2013

Cyprus received ECB deadline

I am sitting in our conference room and have assembled the commanders of our four FWU’s in order to create the game plan for this weekend and especially for the start of trading on Monday. I ordered each commander to draw up a combat plan prior to the meeting in order for us to discuss it. This will give us seven different approaches, one each from the four commanders, one from my chief of security, one from our CMO and of course my own.

The ECB has given Cyprus a deadline of next Monday at which point the ECB will withdraw emergency funding for Cyprus (Cyprus Bailout andthe EURUSD Currency Pair). Without the funding the Cypriot banking system will collapse and Cyprus may be half a step away from a Eurozone exit. A Cyprus exit from the monetary union will be followed by an exit of Greece as well and Portugal as well as Italy may flirt with a similar idea. Spain is next on the list for a full financial bailout.

Cyprus needs to come up with a plan to cough up €5.8 Billion in order to secure a €10 Billion bailout. Last weekend we witnessed the first failed attempt to push through a bill in order to force a depositor participation in the bailout (Cyprus Bailout Rattles Eurozone and GlobalMarkets). The proposal was the work of Germany and they applauded the move on Monday. The measure was defeated with 36 votes against it and 19 abstentions while President Anastasiades managed to rally zero yes votes.

The Germans, in a well-known display of cowardness, forced Cyprus to take their idea and make it public in order to gauge global opinion from power players. Up until now it was an unwritten taboo to force insured depositors to participate in a financial bailout. Germany broke that taboo and drew harsh global criticism as the country once again became the most hated member of the European community. Interesting how history repeats itself in such a short time frame.

Cyprus has over €26 Billion of Russian deposits and Germany insisted Russian participation in the bailout. Russia has openly refused, but closed door meeting indicated that if Germany together with the EU would be willing to work closer with Russia they may get on board. Germany, which decades ago became the female canine of the Kremlin, refused the generosity of Russia and no deal was reached. Russia already made a €2.5 Billion loan to Cyprus in order to help the country restructure financially.

Germany was angered over Russia’s refusal and the proposal to force depositors to participate in the bailout was Berlin’s way of seeking revenge as the country is left without any allies. The initial proposal called for a 6.6% theft of deposits below €100,000 (deposits below €20,000 would not be touched) and a theft of 9.9% on deposits above €100,000. The deal was alter changed to steal much less from deposits below €100,000 and much more from deposits above €100,000 which was a clear indicator that this proposal was drafted with the sole purpose to legally steal money from foreign depositors, mainly Russia.

The Kremlin stated that the treatment was unfair and that Cyprus started to play a dangerous game which was an indirect warning to Germany. Cyprus did not want to simply be a pawn in this game and send their Finance Minister to Moscow in order to ask for a €5Billion loan which was refused by Russia as the two countries could not agree on terms. Russia did agree to amend the terms of the €2.5 Billion loan.

In addition Cyprus has suspended talks with the Troika, the ECB, the IMF and the EC, which angered Germany which in return referred to current events as a dangerous poker game. Time is running out and multiple parties seek to broker a compromise. Cyprus may be the spark which will ignite a global sell-off.

We are working even harder to have a combat plan which we can execute on our behalf as well as our contractors. I think I am looking down a very long and eventful weekend with no time for private life. The global arena is heating up rather fast and different governments seek different approaches in order to gain the upper hand. Weekend, here we come as others try to answer the question:


Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Cyprus Bailout Rattles Eurozone and Global Markets

Over the weekend we were busy getting our new HQ up to full operational speed. A sense of normality sets in and I am working on three projects which take up all my free time which has unfortunately resulted in me not being able to satisfy my girlfriend sexually anymore. She is very unhappy with our love life and our life in general and according to her I carry to burden of the blame.

I have been trying to talk to her about my issues, but I feel I am talking to a disinterested person who is now being courted by one of our enemies and she is more open to the idea than I would like. She started to play a dangerous game and if she is not careful she may cross the line into outright betrayal. I feel as if my private life is suffering as a result of intense pressure from my career. She was very understanding until about two months ago. Now she enjoys her excursions into dangerous waters which may impact our future together. She flirts with fire and may end up burning down the mansion.

It is 0614 hours in the morning and I am headed back from the gym and straight to the office as my personal assistant calls me in order to inform me about the latest developments out of Cyprus. We are well aware of the fact that they require a financial bailout as a series of horrible financial decisions dragged the tiny island nation into deep waters. Their Eurozone membership makes this quite a delicate situation.

The majority had ignored the Eurozone problems and pushed them far into the background which allowed them to grow in silence and are now bigger than ever. Cyprus was locked into heavy discussions over the weekend in order to come up with a plan to save their financial system and satisfy foreign requirements for a financial bailout.

The shocking news were unveiled late Sunday which even caught Brussels off-guard. The Cypriot government will force bank depositors to participate in the financial bailout. The ECB under German pressure is very reluctant to commit to a full financial bailout as a large amount of Russian money is sheltered away in Cyprus. Among the money is also that of crime cartels which has been a huge stumbling block for a bailout.

Russia has no interest in participating in any ill-willed bailout and stands on the sidelines, unless of course the EU will give into Russian demands which would be for the mutual benefit of both parties involved. As for now any financial bailout will be without Russian participation, but the oligarchs will welcome European taxpayers who are forced to bail them out.

Cypress will force depositors to participate and the initial proposal was that each deposit under €100,000 will be forced to participate with 6.75% while accounts above €100,000 will be forced to participate with 9.9%. Brussels and Frankfurt were pleased, and President Anastasiades was rumored to have 29 parliamentary votes for his proposal, the minimum required to pass it.

Cyprus was supposed to vote on Monday, but during the afternoon the vote was canceled which indicates more problems with the proposal itself. Early Monday morning President Anastasiades was reported to change the forced depositor’s bailout by reducing the amount paid by accounts with less than €100,000 to 3% and those above €100,000 in double digits, potentially between 12% and 15%. Banks were closed on Monday for a bank holiday and will remain closed today as well until the vote takes place which is scheduled for this afternoon.

Germany applauds the bailout while Russia so far is the only source to smell a foul play when it sees on. The Kremlin stated that Cyprus acted in an unfair as well as unprofessional manner and started to play a dangerous game. Everyone knows that almost no Cypriot has a deposit above €100,000 and that this is a way to legally steal money from wealthy foreigners who were lured to Cyprus due to very business friendly conditions.

It appears as Cyprus now tries to bite the hand which was feeding it and turns its back on business friendly policies which is a rather unsettling development. Depositors will receive equity stakes in bailed out banks as well as government bonds which are tied to future revenues generated from Cyprus’ natural gas developments.

It appears as Cyprus tries to force it population to invest which may end up as a net gain for its citizens while it steals the money which was deposited by wealthy foreign clients as well as corporations. Since Germany applauds this deal while Russia is determined to get even should the vote pass this tiny country could cause a huge divide and destabilize the entire political landscape in Europe. Cyprus may be the spark which will ignite the fire.

I pull into the parking garage after passing our security check-point and thank my personal assistant for the update. I order my breakfast and she informs she that she took the liberty to set-up breakfast on the balcony for me knowing today will be a busy day. I enjoy her proactive initiative and she does make my life a lot easier. Cyprus will definitely keep us busy and on alert. I need to assemble our FWU and create an action plan as I have this feeling that we will either need it ourselves or be asked to engage by a party of interest.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

PaxForex Review

Today we will take a closer look at PaxForex. We have mentioned them before and briefly touched on ten aspects about this broker we really like. They are growing steadily and becoming a bigger and bigger outlet for retail traders. Plenty of brokers remain static and stop innovating in order to remain competitive. PaxForex is a very dynamic broker and works hard every day in order to stay ahead of their competition which explains their growing market share of the forex market.

Let’s take a deeper look into the ten factor’s The Last Bear likes about this broker
  1. PaxForex is a stable, secure and reliable off-shore broker who welcomes U.S. clients. PaxForex is backed by several big investors which provides stability as well as security to its clients as they can rest assured the company remains liquid and will be able to always honor its commitments. PaxForex also welcomes traders from the U.S. who seek to move their forex accounts off-shore due to the increasing uncompetitiveness of the U.S.
  2. PaxForex Trading Recommendations which we have followed for over six months before we have our stamp of approval. They have in-house forex analysts who give trading recommendations to clients. Over the six months we tracked their recommendations they made on average 250 pips per week with a slight uptrend at the start of 2013. It is a great service for traders who wish to put their capital on cruise control.
  3. They offer plenty of forex pairs for traders. The range of products they trade is above average and allow trader’s to not only trade the most popular forex pairs, but also the less liquid pairs which allows for more trading opportunities and a wider forex trading strategy. We would like them to add even more pairs in the future and will report once they decide to increase their offering even further.
  4. Leverage of up to 500 times your investment. You can chose your leverage and the most you can enjoy up to 500 times your capital which will greatly enhance your ability to profit from your trades. Just keep in mind that leverage may also increase your losses and you need to be aware of how to use leverage and manage your funds wisely. There are a handful of brokers who allow you even more leverage which is very dangerous. The Last Bear recommends leverage of 1:200 which will give you ample trading power and still protect your downside.
  5. PaxForex offers attractive bonuses. Some hate bonuses and prefer to only trade their own capital which is absolutely fine. Just fund your account and don’t request a bonus. There are others who enjoy great bonuses and PaxForex offers a range of deposit bonuses which are great for traders who do not plan to withdraw their funds until they reach the bonus requirements. We strongly advise ever trader to read the requirements carefully and fully understand them before they request a bonus.
  6. A great customer service team is employed at PaxForex which is dedicated to answer all of your questions in a professional manner. Even better is that you will not require their services on too many occasions as we have experienced ourselves that PaxForex allows you to trade in the forex market and offers an environment that just works. They make sure everything on their end works so that you can spend your time focusing on your currency trades. Should you ever encounter a problem or have a question you will be catered to immediately.
  7. They run their own PaxForex blog with interesting posts about the forex market and economic events while they also educate you about what happens in the economy. The information is relevant to your trading portfolio and will give you better understanding of big market moves while they also offer advice on how to react during turbulent times. It is a nice resource for traders who are interested in the wider economy.
  8. Rare re-quotes with PaxForex is another great benefactor when you decide to move your forex trading here. During highly volatile times and fast market movements you may experience re-quotes which is normal due to high volume moves. There will be no re-quotes during normal market moves and PaxForex never manipulates its prices.
  9. Slippage is another problem which you do not have to worry about with PaxForex. They execute almost 100% of their entered trades without issues. Slippage may occur from time to time, but can be viewed as an abnormal event. In general PaxForex executes all forex trades for their clients.
  10. Spreads are around average for their offered currency pairs. Overall there are quite acceptable, but we hope to see even lower spreads in the future in order to remain competitive.

There are plenty of positives to say about PaxForex, but no broker is perfect and below are some factors that are missing over at PaxForex:
  • PaxForex does not offer ECN accounts which is the biggest drawback for more active, high volume and professional traders. We will monitor the developments over at PaxForex and let you know should they decide to add ECN accounts to their offerings.
  • There are no PAMM accounts offered which is rather disappointing and we hope they will implement them in the future.
  • PaxForex does not host trading challenges in demo accounts with real cash prices and it would be nice to see those offered.

Conclusion

We believe PaxForex is the best destination for all new retail traders who enter the market due to their services offered as described above. They also work on a forex trading course in order to promote 
understanding amongst new traders and give them a strong fundamental foundation so they can create their own forex trading strategy.

PaxForex is a rare case where the broker actually cares about all its clients and wants them to better their trading results. As every other broker they earn their money through spreads and the more clients trade successfully the more they earn which is why they care about results achieved by their traders and want them to be as profitable as possible. Two claws up, The Last Bear has roared!


Thursday, March 14, 2013

US Air Force removes reports from Drone Strikes

I am getting ready to leave the office and head over to the elevators. Our Chief Military Officer joins me on the way down to the parking garage. We engage into small talk about the move to Monaco and our increase security features. The CMO is in charge of all military related activity we engage into and we work closely together as financing our missions is as essential as planning them and carrying them out.

He asks me if I heard about how the U.S. Air Force decided to stop reporting data on drone strikes in their monthly air power summaries. Now the government which pushes, thankfully with no positive results, for full transparency in the financial system and labels us the pirates of the financial world decides to be hypocritical and reports less on what the favorite toy of the military is doing.

U.S. Central Command, which oversees activity in Afghanistan, issued a statement that data was removed due to misappropriate focus on drone activity as it only recorded carried out air strikes which account for roughly 3% of drone activity while the remaining 97% is focused on reconnaissance.  Drones have become focus of attention on Capitol Hill after Dumbama nominated his chief counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan as new CIA director. Brennan is the chief architect of the drone campaign.

There is concern that Dumbama, Chief Abuser of the U.S. Constitution, will use drone strikes against U.S. citizens within the United States. The removal of drone data only points to two very obvious developments:
Drone strikes will increase with less confirmed data and in more countries. The CIA will request more drone strikes especially in the Middle East in order to neutralize threats to national security. The appointment of Brennan as new CIA director confirms this theory. U.S. ground forces will be withdrawn which makes the presence of unmanned aerial drones for reconnaissance as well as air strike purposes a necessity in order to maintain control of the region.

Dumbama plans to use drones within the Unites States for the same purposes they are being used in Afghanistan. There will be an increase of aerial surveillance as well as drone strikes against targets which operate in the country. The constitutionality of such a move is under debate and it may take years for a solution which is why the Chief Abuser of the U.S. Constitution decided to take matters in his own hands and circumvent the process of approval.

I thank our CMO for the update as well small talk as we arrive in the parking garage and make our way to our vehicles. I have skipped lunch and am starving as I enter my car. It is almost 2100 hours and I decide to head to a restaurant before I go home. The day has been hard, long and stressful and I long for a nice relaxing massage at the spa; maybe another day. The sun is set and I enjoy my drive through the city as the moon shivers in the Mediterranean. Priceless!

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Karzai accuses U.S. of conspiracy with Taliban

We were ordered to have an entire communication blackout as we relocated our headquarters over the past two months for security reasons. This decision was made after the attack last year which was supposed to take out some of our senior executives. We have left Singapore now and moved to the Principality of Monaco. The communication blackout was the reason for the absence of any news.

I had to maintain my silence for security reasons and now that we are all settled in and secure thanks to the environment the principality provides for us. My office overlooks the harbor in Monte Carlo and I am happy over all the upgrades we have implemented. Our workload has increased and we were very busy over the past ten weeks.

Security has increased, but after all six assassins have been processed and our relocation we all feel much safer. It’s our second day here at new HQ and we are all eager to work on our tasks at hand. The head of m security team enters my office and informs me that they have located the contractor who hired the six-member assassin team. The group responsible for the terrorist attack calls themselves Liber8, after the terror group in a TV show.

We have not located their home base as of yet, but have a special unit designated to track them down. I thank the head of my security team and as he exits my personal assistant enters with a summary of a speech Afghan President Karzai gave on Sunday. Karzai accused the U.S. military of working together with Taliban forces in order to destabilize Afghanistan and show the Afghan people that suicide bombings and attacks will be a daily routine after foreign coalition troops will leave the country in 2014.

Karzai was regarded as a strong Middle Eastern ally to the U.S. and his accusations may collapse this image. There was no response from coalition command to the Karzai speech. This was not his first speech where he made statements and remarks of similar nature. He threatened to join forces with the Taliban and called NATO forces occupiers who want to plunder his country. Usually he makes those remarks when he feels Afghan sovereignty is undermined or that his country’s concerns are not taken seriously by his allies.

NATO forces have started a slow process of withdrawal and hand over security measures to Afghan forces that are often infiltrated by Taliban fighters and even al-Qaida fighters or sympathizers. Afghan security forces have not demonstrated the ability to secure the country without foreign assistance. Karzai said that NATO forces need to subscribe to Afghan needs and that the will be told where and when they are needed.

Karzai offered no proof of his allegations, but stated that the U.S. and the Taliban have daily negotiations in foreign countries and that the U.S. would like to start peace negotiations in order to seek a political solution to the war while it does not recognize the Taliban as an enemy any longer.

I can clearly see that Karzai is upset about the political playground in Afghanistan and that he may have some serious security concerns. It appears that his biggest fear of a political solution to the Taliban insurgency would cost him power which he would have to share with Taliban elders who push for extreme Muslim rule. 

One thing is clear; the situation will change rather drastically in Afghanistan over the next 24 months and it remains to be seen if the change is for the better or for the worse. In either case the Afghan civilian population will pay the price for it. I look out the window into the sunset as I finish the report and close the folder. It’s a beautiful sunset and I am glad to head our most important project.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

PaxForex plans to list on NYSE?

We have come across some rumors that were first published at Forex No Deposit Bonus. It is an unknown source for market news, but apparently the blogger who runs the show there has gotten his hands on some interesting news. He claimed he got his hands or rather ears on some insider information that PaxForex has plans to list on the Big Board.

While The Last Bear can’t confirm the rumors or source we thought we pick it up and take a closer look. So far only FXCM is a publicly listed forex broker and no other well-known brokerage has followed suit. The merits of going public for a forex broker are not exactly clear at this point. It would strengthen them as a sound and solid broker as the NYSE listing requirements are tough so it would definitely boost their credibility.

Furthermore it may attract some big time forex traders as well as institutional traders to PaxForex. Either way the news do stir some quiet waters as it is an uncommon move, but then again maybe that is why the management at PaxForex decided to go public and list. It would be nice to get an interview with a representative from the management team in order to ask some questions about them.

This does show that PaxForex is backed by some serious big time investors and a very calming confirmation for every trader who seeks a reliable brokerage to deal with. The Last Bear is not sure how many investors are behind PaxForex and what their plans look like with a rumored IPO, but from professional experience (yes, we do have trading experience with them and continue to do so) we can only congratulate the team over at PaxForex which has constantly worked hard and evolved into a much better forex broker.

It would be nice to know how PaxForex plans to treat clients during an IPO and if they would offer their loyal client base share in the public company. Most forex brokers stopped evolving and are happy to stand still where they are and there are very few who continue to work hard in order to either gain a competitive edge or maintain the one they have and The Last Bear is glad that PaxForex belongs to the few that are not happy standing still.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

NZDUSD – Three Brokers, Three Analyses

Good evening everyone and welcome to our NZDUSD discussion for the week. There has been much talk out of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the strength of the Kiwi. The NZDUSD has retreated to a certain extend and there are plenty of views where this currency will go next.

Let’s take a look at Oanda’s Market Pulse:

Their point of view is rather bearish on this issue and they attribute their bearish view to weak Chinese PMI as well as sequester in the U.S. In February RBNZ Governor Wheeler rattled this currency pair with his dovish statements. Oanda’s Market Pulse also noted statements that market participants priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in 2013.

Overall Oanda does not rule out that this pair can move higher. In essence they said it is bearish, but can go higher so we really did not get any signal provided for trading purposes by them. They said it can go lower, but it can also move higher. I don’t think any of us needed an analyst to tell us both potential outcomes.
The Last Bear ranks the Oanda Market Pulse as unsatisfactory as it does not proved its clients an edge in the forex market. Next!

Here is PaxForex Trading Recommendation for the NZDUSD:

According to their analyst the NZDUSD will launch a correction and they recommended a short position at 0.8310. This analysis was performed on February 28th. They also gave a take profit level of 0.8250. The entire analysis was based on a technical analysis and they did not waste their time with fundamental issues. On March 1st the take profit level was triggered which allowed their traders to earn 60 pips.

The analysts over at PaxForex took a stance and advised their clients on what exactly to do in order to be able to profit from the available knowledge with exact entry as well as exit points. This form of presentation gives traders an edge in today’s forex market and provided something useful which can be executed.

The Last Bear ranks the PaxForex Trading Recommendations as excellent as it provides clients exact entry as well as exit levels which allows trader’s to add trades to their portfolio.

InstaForex FX Analytics

Our last look goes towards InstaForex and their FX Analytics. Unfortunately their take was the worst out of all as they offer a snapshot they created and is totally useless. Furthermore they give you both scenarios and are unable to identify the trend in their analysis, either because they wish to avoid it on purpose or because they are not able to identify it.

In general the weekly snapshot offered by the InstaForex analysts does not offer trader’s anything beneficial as it creates several what if scenarios and compares to nothing more than a guessing game. You can compare it to a weather forecaster who says if it rains take an umbrella with you, but if it does not rain you can leave it at home.

The Last Bear ranks the InstaForex FX Analytics terrible as it does not provide useful information to clients, but is disguised as a sophisticated analysis.