Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Eurozone Record Recession


It has been a very eventful week, but unfortunately in thewrong direction for all of us here. A somewhat depressing cloud is hanging overthe office and it is hard to even force a smile on our faces. I do congratulatethose around us who try. My personal assistant, just as most if not all otherpersonal assistants, tries hard to keep a positive attitude. We were hard hitby the last eight trading days which took us by surprise after a greatfirst-quarter and fantastic April.

I take the full responsibility for a terrible performance this month, but it does not help our plans out. This unexpected breakdown in our performance comes at a terrible time as we are trying to fund several operations in different parts of the world. I enter my office and take a seat as my personal assistant enters with a big glass of fresh squeezed orange juice. I thank her and she takes a seat on the couch asking me what I have in mind now.

I fold my hands and rest my chin on them as I sigh taking a look around the office and everyone I can glance at. Everyone is down as if we are done for the year, not a single person seems to see anything positive and a vicious circle has begun. I get up and walk over to the door, look back at my personal assistant and call everyone to attention. I jump on the first table and tell everyone to stop right now, stop being depressed over the events which hit us, hit us hard, and do not dare to lose track of our main objective. We need to streamline and focus. I go on and on and give them a 15 min motivational speech. The more I talk the more I get motivated myself and I end the speech with a simple demand. I ask everyone who does not feel competent enough to follow my lead to take the rest of the quarter of, yes that is over six weeks.

There is a moment of devastating silence until one of our analysts says that the Eurozone has entered its longest recession since it was created. The world’s biggest economy has contracted 0.2% in the first-quarter, worse than expected. From France to Italy and from Spain to the Netherlands every country has performed far worse than the socialists expected. Germany managed a terrible 0.1% gain and since they are the economic engine of the EU it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out how bad the picture is.

French socialists and German Nazis have ensured the Eurozone is falling apart on an economic as well as fiscal level further and faster than the system can handle. There is no solution to the problem as long as Franco-German socialists and extremist are allowed to govern. Outside the Eurozone the U.S. saw a 0.5% drop in manufacturing output which is far worse than the 0.2% decline expected.

The only bright spot, if that is what you can call it, came out of the UK as the growth forecast was revised higher for the first time since the financial crisis took hold. Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne gave his last quarterly inflation outlook and took the opportunity to criticize the idiotic socialistic brain cramp of a financial transaction tax which is heavily favored by the French social pest as well as the German austerity Nazis. The UK remains the sole fighting force and we can only appreciate and support it.

I thank the analyst and tell everyone that this is the spirit, we need to focus. I jump of the desk and walk around somewhat hectically and ask for more of that drive. I ask everyone what else we know right now that we can take advantage of. I know I need to create one successful finish to the day and hopefully we can build on it. I decided to make it a group effort and I seek heavy involvement.

Nobody has yet answered. I ask what financial markets are doing in Germany, France and the UK. I inquiry about Italy, Spain and the Netherlands and the status of financial markets there as people get some of the hype and start to scramble for information. Answers start flying around. There is a big disconnect with economic data and financial markets as they continue to grind higher. Now or never, start shorting continental Europe, take short in the U.S. This is a do or die situation and we need to turn momentum in our favor.

Disregard risk management, I give full permission for it. Our traders rush to their terminals and start to execute orders I am yelling out. Take long positions in the AUDUSD currency pair, short the USDCHF get to work and create results. I manage to turn the office into a crazy but more cheerful place as I jump from desk to desk and from trading terminal to terminal. It looks like a zoo, but this is exactly what we needed as I rush back into my office. Well done is what my personal assistant tells me with a smile. Just what we needed to turn things around.

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