Sunday, September 8, 2013

August 2013 NFP Report

As expected the August 2013 Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the US disappointed heavily. My prediction which I posted here about an hour before the official release was right in the money except for the unemployment rate. You can read US NFP August 2013 Prediction, but here are the main numbers:


  • Unemployment rate to increase 0.1% to 7.5% - It decrease 0.1% to 7.3%
  • NFP between 160K and 180K – It came in at 169K
  • Downward revisions to the prior two months – The last two months were revised lower

The August 2013 NFP report disappointed on all levels. Let’s take a look at the downward revisions first; June was revised lower from 188K to 172K while July was revised lower from 162K to 104K and the weakest reading in over twelve months. This means the past two months were revised lower by 74K and if we subtract that from the 169K figure for August, which is likely to be revised lower next month, the total for August clocks in at 95K.

The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 7.3%, but it dropped for all the wrong reasons as more discouraged unemployed simply gave up looking for a job and the participation rate declined by 0.2% otherwise the unemployment rate would have ticked up 0.1% to 7.5% as predicted here on The Last Bear.

Overall the NFP report further confirms the dire state of the US labor market and how the US lacks leadership in all levels, especially in the White House. The economy never exited the recession and all data points to a repeat of an official recession. Watch out for the next NFP report for September to show a continuation of this trend in the labor market.

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