As expected the August 2013 Non-Farm Payrolls report out of
the US disappointed heavily. My prediction which I posted here about an hour
before the official release was right in the money except for the unemployment
rate. You can read US NFP August 2013 Prediction, but here are the main
numbers:
- Unemployment rate to increase 0.1% to 7.5% - It decrease 0.1% to 7.3%
- NFP between 160K and 180K – It came in at 169K
- Downward revisions to the prior two months – The last two months were revised lower
The August 2013 NFP report disappointed on all levels. Let’s
take a look at the downward revisions first; June was revised lower from 188K
to 172K while July was revised lower from 162K to 104K and the weakest reading
in over twelve months. This means the past two months were revised lower by 74K
and if we subtract that from the 169K figure for August, which is likely to be
revised lower next month, the total for August clocks in at 95K.
The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 7.3%, but it dropped
for all the wrong reasons as more discouraged unemployed simply gave up looking
for a job and the participation rate declined by 0.2% otherwise the
unemployment rate would have ticked up 0.1% to 7.5% as predicted here on The
Last Bear.
Overall the NFP report further confirms the dire state of
the US labor market and how the US lacks leadership in all levels, especially
in the White House. The economy never exited the recession and all data points
to a repeat of an official recession. Watch out for the next NFP report for
September to show a continuation of this trend in the labor market.
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