Monday, December 9, 2013

How close is US Fed to Taper?

It has been a rather hectic month last month and we has a work overload which almost crushed everyone at the office. There are times of relative calm and there are times of extreme rush and pressure, but that is what we signed up for and before you get the impression that I am complaining I want to clarify that I am doing the exact opposite. 

Busy is good, the busier the better. So as you may have noticed we had two monthly non-farm payroll reports out of the US and are on the verge of a lack of leadership change at the US Federal Reserve. Basically one idiot out and a bigger idiot in. This has been the pattern over the past few decades and I am always humored and surprised that the next generation of Fed abuse is always worse than the previous one. 

NFP data pointed two two consecutive months of above 200K new jobs created, but the data is not as rosy as dumb money media outlets and analysts have you believe in order to keep the fake bull rally alive. The underlying data shows fundamental weakness in the reports and while some have run around like a chicken without a head screaming taper they simply mimic the crowd mentality without even fully understanding what they just said.

How close is the US Fed to Taper?

Not as close as the US Dollar bulls want them to be. The two reports released simply confirm that the economic picture was a bit more stable six months ago than expected, but during that time the doofus at the helm of the Fed did not realize that and maintained the current stimulus.

Wait a second, the doofus at the Fed not realizing an economic development until after the fact it happened? Does that remind you of something? 

Yes, Janet Yellen. She said the same thing about the financial crisis. Janet Yellen - The joke is on you!

So, what about the current economic climate?

Well, it may be much worse than expected or at least not as strong as begged. Combine that with the next era of monetary idiocy which will soon grasp the Fed and you are not even close to a significant taper by the Fed. 

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